TO BE OR NOT TO BE? THAT IS THE QUESTION!

             (The 77th Birth Message of Prince Chukwuemeka I. Onyesoh)

According to the Census Bureau of the United States, the population of Nigeria will reach 402 million people by the year 2050, making Nigeria the world's 3rd most populous country (overtaking even USA). Nigeria's 2018 population is estimated at 213 Million. That means that there would be a growth of 189 million within the next 32 years. There is therefore an annual population growth of about 6 million - annual growth of about 2.8 to 3%. Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (PPP based) growth in the past couple of years since 2015, varies from negative growth to marginal growths of 1 to 2%.
(GDP per capita  (PPP based) is the total value of goods and services produced in an economy converted to international dollars using purchasing power parity and divided by the total population in the economy).

The deficiency between Nigerian population growth, shown above as an average of 3%, and Nigerian GDP growth (from negative growth to 1 to 2% growth), is therefore as much as 1 to 3%.  That deficiency manifests as unemployment growth in the economy and culminates in the level of poverty, violence and absence of well- being in the economy.

Nigeria, World's Capital of Poverty
Above explains why Nigeria has progressively turned out the world's capital of poverty - 87 million of extremely poor, over and above India with over six times Nigeria's population (1.3 billion). Living in extreme poverty as defined by the World Bank is living under $1.90 to $2 (N680) per day and therefore unable to meet minimal needs for survival. The 2015 World Poverty Clock of the World Data Lab in Vienna, Austria, stated that  42.4per cent of Nigerians were living in extreme poverty and in June 2018, the figure was 44.2 per cent. On the average, seven people descend into poverty every minute.
Reacting to this sad extreme poverty situation in Nigeria at the 58th Annual General Conference of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) the Vice President of Nigeria, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, Pastor, Prof. of Law and SAN, on Monday 27th August 2018, spoke in Abuja, as if he has no calculator and there is no Economist in the Presidency of Nigeria. He claimed that since 2016, the Federal Government of Nigeria distributes N500 billion annually to the poorest of the poor in Nigeria. This has been found to be  untrue. The most President Buhari's government has ever released in its National Social Investment Programs (NSIP) is about N200 billion, and till date no one has ever come across any one who has so benefitted from the scheme, nor have anybody in the government published any such names and addresses of beneficiaries. Finally, even if N500 Billion is shared to 87.52 million extreme poor in Nigeria, that would give each beneficiary only N5,712.979 in a year, amounting to a mere N15.65 per day.  To exit extreme poverty, an individual requires a minimum of  $1.90 (N680) per day. Poverty alleviation is meant to enable the poor exit poverty by being self sufficient. N15.65 per day is like a poor fundamentalist Moslem's fulfillment of zakat (Charitable giving of alms - the 3rd Pillar of Islam) to qualify such person for a place in after-life paradise.
The second half of the VP's assertion that 500,000 graduates had been employed under the N-Power scheme as  part of NSIP for providing jobs to graduates, is another bombast, more of share propaganda as no Nigerian knows of any graduates so employed since 2015; and Prof. Osibanjo and his government have bluntly refused to publish any list of such graduates, so employed.
Prof. Osinbajo spoke as the Chairman of Nigeria's Economic Council and it became obvious why and how Nigeria manufactures seven extremely poor Nigerians every minute with no hope of any exiting poverty, there being no genuine government exit plans.


Fundamentalism Generates Demagoguery, Illiteracy, Violence, Unemployment, Unregulated Population Growth and Extreme Poverty - a Vicious Cycle:

Belief in God is natural and is justified God being the creator of the world and all therein. But fundamentalism, which is the form of a religion, especially Islam or Christianity, that upholds belief in the strict, literal interpretation of scripture, is anti-civilizational.
Christianity, by 2015 estimates, remains the world's largest religion, making up a third (31%) of earth's 7.3 billion, with little or no growth from its 2010 population of 2.2 billion to a mere 2.3 billion in 2015. This is unlike Muslim faith which from 1.6 billion in 2010 rose to 1.8 billion in 2015. Islam is therefore growing more rapidly than any other religion in the world and will nearly equal Christianity by 2050 before eclipsing it around 2070, if current trend continues (Pew Research Centre). And there is no reason why the trend will stop given the pacifist, laid-back and lackadaisical attitude of Christian leaders in the world.

The leadership of the two faiths, is where the difference lies. Whereas most Christian leaders are liberal, most most Muslim leaders are fundamentalist. The fundamentalist Islamists set the ultimate purpose of Islam as the  subjugation and forcible conversion of all people to Islam and world domination. The model is the  the establishment by force of a worldwide Islamic state where Sharia law is enforced on all.  Conversion or follower-ship is enforced and/or sustained through Jihad - force
Therein lies the difference with Christianity in which there is total reliance on evangelism for conversion of new members and sustenance of membership.
JIHAD DEFINITION
Jihad is “a war or struggle, fought against un-believers to defend or spread Islamic faith.” Although Jihad is not one of the Five Pillars of Islam but one of the Hadiths, Al Bukhari, revealed that the Holy Prophet, in one of his teachings, ranked Jihad above all other pillars of Islam, except Pillar One: “Belief in Allah and His Apostle (Holy Prophet Mohammed).” In other words, Jihad is the second most important Pillar of Islam and it is fought in eight forms namely: Words, Deception, Sword (violence), Taxation, Financial Reward, Slavery, Sharia Law, Polygamy (population growth) and Spirits.
 Sharia Law is the backbone of fundamentalist Islam.   It is the moral code and religious law of Islam, which guides all aspects of Muslim life including daily routines, familial and religious obligations, and financial dealings. Sharia Law is derived primarily from precepts set forth in the Quranic verses (ayahs) and the examples set by the Islamic prophet in the Sunnah (Hadith – the sayings, practices, and teachings of the Prophet Muhammad) as primary sources.For questions not directly addressed in the primary sources, the application of Sharia is extended through consensus of the religious scholars (ulama) thought to embody the consensus of the Muslim community (ijma). Differences in opinions over “questions not sufficiently addressed by primary sources” between different groups of ulamas (religious scholars) quite often result in sharp differences and frequently result in violence between the sects led by different ulamas. The introduction of Sharia is the long-standing goal for Islamic movements globally . . . but attempts to impose Sharia have been accompanied by controversy, violence, and even warfare.”
  This is the source of violence in even totally Moslem countries like Pakistan and Afghanistan. And that is how Nigeria ignited Boko Haram and Fulani Herdsmen terrorism in year 2000.
 Sharia Law is incompatible with Common Law; and inconsistent with secular democracy. Wherever they mix, there is crisis resulting in violence of a permanent nature. Fundamentalist Islam, which represented by Sharia Law, is therefore responsible for 90% of violence, the world-over, Nigeria being an example.
The Islamic fundamentalists’ attitude to secular democratic institutions is exposed in their war cry “Allahu Akbar,” which is generally misinterpreted by the international media and Nigerians as “God is great,” but actually means “Allah is greater than your God, Constitution or Government.”It is the aggressive declaration that Allah and Islam are dominant over every other form of government, religion, law or ethic, which is why Islamic Jihadists in the midst of killing infidels, so often shout it, primarily in order to 'strike terror in the hearts of the enemies of Allah.”

The implications of Jihad of Polygamy (Population Growth) for Ndigbo in Nigeria, is the Fulcrum of this Birthday Message.

 Originally conceived to replace many men killed in early Jihad, polygamy of upper limit of four wives and a latitude for as many concubines as one can maintain, plus virtual absence of birth control have been major sources of rapid increase in Moslem population. Unfortunately uncontrolled family size limits education and training that children in above circumstance can get. However, the need to have a poor class in fundamentalist Islamic societies on whom the faithful are required to execute zakat (Charitable giving: the giving of alms - the 3rd Pillar of Islam) so as to qualify the believer to enter paradise after-life makes, makes poverty in such society mandatory.

A cycle of children of the poor who emerge as adults with no literacy or numeracy except capability to recite the Quran in Arabic, the official language of Islam, the only thing (along with alms begging) they are taught from age 3 to 16/18 in their Almajiri classes, perpetuates poverty.  Marriage of girls from age 9 to 13 and consequent child motherhood,further complicates the poverty cycle. A man with three to four wives and each wife with five to six children pushes the average family size to no less than 24 all struggling to meet daily needs with no modern  health care, a home not quite fit for domestic animals, no clean water, unhealthy environment with all the complications of open defecation.

THE NIGERIAN SCENARIO:

In Northern Nigeria, Jihad of polygamy (population growth) is taken very seriously for on it relies the ability to rule the more educated and organized Southern Nigeria where more serious thought and consideration is given to the economies of family size.
The political leaders of the North West and North East are so obsessed with overwhelming the rest of the country with population that in addition to the advantages conferred on their people by the polygamous nature of marriages and little or no care for their offsprings, they also undertake some further extra-ordinary measures to boost their population growth.
Governments in the zones therefore sponsor and organize mass weddings for productive men and women who cannot afford marriages to enable them produce more children.
For example in May 2012, Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano State, an ultra Jihadist, initiated government sponsored mass wedding of over 1,000 divorcees and widows in Kano State. In April 2013 the Governor reported that over N238 million was used in sponsoring the 3rd batch of these mass weddings (www.premiumtimes.ng.com). Thereafter Kano Hisba (Sharia) Board took over mass weddings as a serious government constant undertaking, conducted severally every year. Vanguard of 27th Oct. 2015 reported government-sponsored mass wedding of  over 2,000 widows and divorcees by Gov. Abdullah Gandunje (PhD graduate in Public Administration of the University of Ibadan) in Oct. 2015. Zamfara joined this Jihad of Polygamy (Population growth) with its initial 1,000 mass wedding in January 2013.

Nigeria's Deliberately Porous Northern Borders:
Nigeria's porous borders is another source of manipulating population growth against the best interest of the Nigerian nation. Out of Nigeria's total land borders of 3,053 kilometers, Niger shares 1,497km; Chad 87 million; Benin Republic 773km and Cameroon 1,690 km. Most of these borders verge on Northern states.  Internal Affairs ministry, Controller-generals of Immigration and Customs, all of which control movements of people and goods across Nigeria's borders, are as a matter of routine, invariably in the hands of Northern Nigerians. There are generally no marked borders between Nigeria and most of these countries, particularly those countries that share borders with the North and also share ethnic and religious affinity.
During the 1963 Census, I supervised the enumeration in a border community in Goronyo District of present Sokoto state. My guide took me into neighboring Niger Republic without any of us knowing. My 2016 investigation confirms that the borderlessness between Niger and Nigeria remains, still sustains.

Republic of Niger, a typical Case of Borderless Nigeria
The Republic of Niger is land-locked with a total land area of 1,270,000 sq.km , making it the largest country in West Africa, but 80% of its land is occupied by the Sahara Desert. 65% of the population of 21.9 million (Jan. 1, 2018 estimate) are ethnic Hausa/Fulani and the current President of Nigeria identifies very closely with them. Its relationship with Nigeria is a case study.
 Almost all manufactured goods in Niger are imported or re-imported from Nigeria with little or no official payment or duty to Nigeria. Nigeria is borrowing from China to extend the planned standard gauge rail line for 55 kilometers into Niger at no cost to Niger at the same time there is not yet standard gauge rail extension to any part of South-East zone of Nigeria.
A petroleum refinery with capacity for 100-150,000 barrel a day is planned for President Buhari's home state in Mashi Town in Katsina state; and a pipeline is proposed to be constructed to import and use Nigerien crude. At $60 per barrel of crude, Nigeria would be paying annually about $1.8Billion to the Republic of Niger for its crude, the same time a glut for Nigeria's crude in the world market leaves consignments unsold, sometimes for months. If the 1,000 km pipeline is also constructed to supply the Kaduna refinery from Niger, it will entail another $1.8Billion payment annually to the Republic of Niger. These are the economic costs of relationship with Niger. It is no surprise Nigeria is poverty capital of the world and given above circumstances will remain so for a very long time.

Political Cost of Republic of Niger to Nigeria:
In the absence of any borders between the Republic of Niger and Nigeria, 65% of Niger's 21.9 million people who are Hasusa-Fulani, easily melt into Nigeria for Census enumeration, voters' registration and actual voting at any general election.

THE QUESTIONS NDIGBO NEED TO ADDRESS

By 2050 Nigerian population would explode to 402 million,  making Nigeria the world's 3rd most populous country in the world. Most of the explosion in Nigeria's population is from Northern Nigeria's deliberate prosecution of Jihad of Population Growth - uncontrolled birth rate, family size and cross-border migration from deliberately North's porous borders.
On account of the above factors, the dangerous projection is that by 2050, more than 70% of Nigerians would be living in the North, the same time they dominate Nigerian extreme poverty and violence - religious killings, maiming, raping, conversion and forced marriage of non-Moslem under-aged and adult females and confiscation of other people's ancestral land. (The 70% projection is a conclusion drawn by Alhaji Kashim Shettima, the governor of Borno State, the epicentre of the Boko Haram insurgency in a 317 page book titled, Making Africa Work, authored by former President Olusegun Obasanjo and three others - Mr. Dickie Davies, a retired Major General in the British Army; Mr. Greg Mills, who is an adviser to several African presidents; and Mr. Jeffrey Herbst, president and CEO of the Newseum Institute, Washington DC and also the president of Colgate University from 2010 to 2015).
As is already obvious, the North would export its extreme poverty, violence and fundamentalist and religious extremism all over Nigeria and in another 20 years when up to 80-90% Nigerians would be northerners, God knows whether Afghanistan and Pakistan would be any different from that kind of Nigeria!

It does not seem that the South-West leadership being piloted by Ahmed Bola Tinubu, which is a major influence in Fundamentalist present take-over of Nigeria since 2015, is, in the least, bothered. It would seem that the lessons of history in the betrayals by the fundamentalist tendencies is lost on present South-West leadership - AFONJA, AKINTOLA, AWOLOWO, ADEKUNLE and ABIOLA! The South-West, has always rescued the oligarchy whenever their asses are on fire - 1967-70, 1975-79, 1999-2010.

Shall the Igbo join the South-West and other Nigerians in submerging their ethnic identities for the oligarchy's TOGA and just live for whatever conveniences might be allowed in a wholly fundamentalist state?

Chukwuemeka I. Onyesoh (Prince)
Enugu.
14th Sept. 2018.