Tuesday, September 15, 2015

OPEN THE GATES - RELEASE THE INMATES AND NIGERIA'S DEVELOPMENT Nigerians, as if none can read and understand, are celebrating an election that was planned and executed to result in the "CHANGEE," believing that the peaceful transfer of power from President Jonathan to President Buhari brings to an end "America's 2005 prediction of Nigeria' disintegration" in 2015. First all, there never was a 2005 U. S. Government prediction of Nigeria's disintegration in 2015; rather a U.S. NGO of retired military scholars, confusingly named U.S. National Intelligence Council, predicted that given Nigeria's religious schisms, ethnic strife and religious divisions, the country might disintegrate in 2015, if no meaningful effort is made to heal these deeply entrenched repellent factors to unity. However in 2011, five serving U.S. Air-force officers of U.S. Centre for Strategy and Technology, Air War College, Air University, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama, published their research f indings which predicted that if Nigeria does not deliberately work hard on clearly stated failure factors, Nigeria would start disintegrating in 2015 and finally dismember in 2030. In its 156-page report titled "Failed State 2030: Nigeria - A Case Study," the Study detailed ten factors, unlike the 2005 NGO's three factors, eating up Nigeria's unity, namely Nigeria's lack of unifying national identity, history of tribal and religious conflicts, pervasive corruption, poor national planning, uneven development, social disorder, rampant criminality, violent insurgency and terminal weak governance. The parameters of Fund for Peace (FFP), the world acclaimed  NGO on peace, security and which tracks state failure world-wide, coincided with the framework of  the five Air Force Colonels. FFP has already set up an Abuja office to monitor Nigeria's fast increasing failure indicators and advise on measures that can abort the ugly trend. No hiding the fact,  Nigeria is precipitously failing in all of the above ten failure markers. Book Haram insurgents for example, are  not just terrorists but Islamic Jihadists like ISIS, AlQaeda, Al-Shaba, Ansaru etc, who are driven by a compelling ideology based on the Quran and which ideology causes individuals to devote their lives, quite often sacrificing their lives for this dream of how society can be ordered, with paradise as compensation. USA, Europe, South Asia including Saudi Arabia,  with their sophisticated defense systems have not been able to wipe out Jihadic militancy. Nigeria cannot totally wipe out Islamic militancy. It can, like USA, Europe and Middle East contain and minimize it. The suicide bombing and other gorilla aspects of the militancy are here with Nigeria for the long haul. Worse still, the back bone of Nigeria's malevolence are Islamic Fundamentalism and Feudalism both of which are incompatible with regular democracy and are invariably in cultural or civilizational  clash with the rest of humanity. Fundamentalism is intolerant of other religions whose practitioners are usually labelled infidels, not deserving of life, property and human dignity.  Sharia Law, which is the backbone of Islamic fundamentalism is in conflict with Common Law and fundamental human rights; and virtually reduces the rights of women and the underclass to that of mere chattels. Fundamentalism dominates life in the Upper North, therefore fighting Boko Haram without addressing Islamic fundamentalism is like  healing the symptoms of a terminal ailment without addressing the main disease. Liberal Islam, as is practiced in South-West Nigeria, Turkey, Malaysia, Singapore and most former Soviet Republics, now independent, appears to be the answer

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